Whom is this Blog meant for?

This BLOG is meant for those INVESTORS who want to benefit from the India story & are on the look out for expert, unbiased & easy to understand Investment advice about MUTUAL FUNDS & other investment avenues.

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Investing Resolutions 2014

   It is always good to go to the root of a word and try and understand the underlying true meaning of the word. So I decided to check Wikipedia for the meaning of the term “New Year's resolution” and here is how Wikipedia defines the term.

A New Year Resolution is a secular tradition, most common in the West but found around the world, in which a person makes a promise to do an act of self-improvement starting on New Year's Day.

A NEW YEAR RESOLUTION IS A PROMISE MADE TO SELF TO DO AN ACT OF SELF-IMPROVEMENT
Now, if we you think that New Year Resolution is a modern phenomenon made popular by modern social media, then you are wrong.
The ancient Babylonians made promises to their gods at the start of each year that they would return borrowed objects and pay their debts.
The Romans began each year by making promises to the god Janus, for whom the month of January is named.
In the Medieval era, the knights took the "peacock vow" at the end of the Christmas season each year to re-affirm their commitment to chivalry.

Hindus, take New Year resolutions on the eve of Diwali to start afresh with renowned vigour the forthcoming year and so on. So do Muslims in the month of Ramadan.

So, just like our forefathers, for us the modern human race, January is the month of taking New Year resolutions. Resolutions for better health, better relations & more prosperity & so on & so forth.

Well my domain is the last one; “PROSPERITY”.

Being a financial coach & planner, let me dare to suggest a few Investing resolutions for the common man. If the Investor sticks to the below mentioned resolutions, he will soon create WEALTH for himself and his family.

And let me assure you that these are times-tested principles….

So, without much ado, let me mention some New Year investing resolutions for one and all.
  
10 Investing resolutions for 2014

1.      I shall buy a decent Term Insurance Plan for myself and other earning members of my family

The first & the only necessary Insurance plan that every earning member should buy is a basic, TERM Insurance Plan that insures ones family against untimely death of the bread winner which can cause immense loss to the family. This is the CHEAPEST form of insurance money can buy but protects your family against the sudden and untimely death of the main bread earner of the family.

2.      I shall buy a decent Mediclaim cover for each member of my family

Anybody can fall ill or meet with an accident in our family. Whereas Life Insurance is to be taken only for the earning member of the family, medical insurance is to be taken for all the members of the family. Medical costs are increasing by the day and if you are not covered by a proper medical plan, sudden sickness or accident in the family has the potential to eat your life’s savings.

3.      I shall buy a decent Critical Illness cover for each member of my family

Just like Mediclaim, Critical Illness cover is equally important. Normal Mediclaim plans do not cover critical diseases that requires you to take a separate critical illness plan. It does not cost much but can save you a lot of cost in case of an unforeseen eventuality.

4.      I shall start Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) in professionally chosen Equity Diversified Mutual Funds

One of best invention in the world of finance is SIP or Systematic Investment Plans. The only fool proof way of talking equity exposure via the Mutual Fund route.
After the abolition of entry loads on Mutual Funds from Aug 1, 2009, Mutual Funds have become the best, most economical form of Investment vehicle available to a retail investor.  Consider this. Over the last decade, well chosen mutual fund schemes have given a compounded average return of 20 to 24% per annum. And that to tax free. How many businesses give this kind of return? Just one caveat, consult a Mutual Fund expert and let him create a dedicated mutual fund portfolio for you after understanding your needs.

5.      I shall pay off my personal loan & credit card out standing’s (asap) at the earliest

Personal loan & credit cards are the costliest form of loans that banks and NBFC’s give to unsuspecting layman. One pays a whopping interest rate of 18% to 24% per annum on personal loans & 36% to 50% per annum on credit cards. Avoid these two at all cost.

6.      I shall not trade in shares & I shall avoid speculation in equity, commodities or F&O

Most people approach the stock market as a place to make fast money in shortest possible time. They buy stocks on tips but make mistake on when to sell and eventually lose money unless you are lucky enough to exit at the right time. But one cannot be lucky all the time. So invest in stocks but only after thorough research. Avoid trading or speculation & always be an Investor. 

7.      I shall not invest in Insurance plans

No matter how much one emphasizes this point, one can never overemphasize it. Insurance is not investment. There are basically 2 types of Insurance plans viz; Traditional Plans like Money Back & Endowment & market-linked plans like ULIPs. The later (ULIPs) are already notorious for being largely miss-sold while the former (traditional plans) give returns that hardly beat inflation. Invest in equity diversified Mutual Funds instead.

8.      I shall consult a Financial Planner to help me plan my financial affairs

We are living in a world of plenty. We now have a problem of CHOICE. 22 + life insurance companies, 44 odd Mutual Fund companies, 7,000+ listed shares and other traditional Savings & investment avenues. How can one expect a lay investor to choose which are the best investment avenues for him/her.
         When one falls ill, one consults a doctor who then writes a prescription and then one goes to the medicine shop and buys the medicine prescribed by the doctor. Why not follow the same path while taking your financial decisions.  Go to the financial planner who after understanding your specific needs, your financial goals & risk profile, helps you create a dedicated investment portfolio. It is worth paying fees to a financial planner & buy peace of mind then paying very high commissions to the commission agents and have sleepless nights.

9.      I shall invest with a GOAL in mind

Now why is this important! Look, investing just to make money seems like a rational thing to do but it is anything but that. If you invest without a Goal, you will never know what action to take when faced with tough choices. So let’s say you have invested for your child’s higher education which is 10 years down the line. In the 4th year of investment, the market tanks. What will you do? Since your goal is 6 years away, you should be happy that the market has tanked and buy as if there is no tomorrow. If you didn’t have a goal in mind, you would probably have panicked and sold in distress thus losing a wonderful opportunity to buy.

10. I shall not forget the above resolutions

  Most important. The above resolutions are not rules. They are principles. And principles are time tested rules that hold their ground through thick & thin.
So do not commit the mistake of forgetting them…

Here’s wishing all my blog readers a very prosperous & wealthy New Year.
Invest wisely, read a lot, read this Blog & keep commenting. I look forward to your constructive criticism.

You have supported me over the last few years of my blogging career here. For want of a better blogging environment, I have moved this blog to  wordpress (http://niravpanchmatia.wordpress.com)

Looking forward to your continued patronage.


HAPPY Investing in 2014…

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

The TRUTH behind GOLD

Dear Blog Readers,
It has been time that we have connected and the fault lies entirely with me that I have been too infrequent in writing on my BLOG. In fact the only complain that you all, the wonderful readers of my BLOG have with me is that I do not write every week. So here is a sincere apology and I promise to be more regular on my BLOG.
In return I would request you to keep showering your blessings, questions & promise to keep writing to me as you have been doing all along.
Having said that, I would like to inform my readers that I have started a small but effective WhatsApp group by the name of “INVESTMENTZ” wherein we discuss Investment & Personal Finance related matters.
The language, as you would expect is informal & attempt is to initiate a healthy dialogue /discussion within the group wherein group members ask queries and I attempt to answer those queries in a simple but effective manner.
Many of you readers and my friends in the Media have been writing to me with queries on GOLD. I therefore decided to share some of the conversation we had on my Whatsapp Group on GOLD with you.
So here is the transcript on GOLD from our WhatsApp conversation. Again, the setting is very informal as you wud expect on such grp.
WhatsApp (Investmentz) log on GOLD:
Nirav panchmatia: Good Morning. Many of you had called me to enquire on Gold. Well let's discuss Gold Fundamentals today.
On a very basic level, GOLD Prices in India are influenced by 2 very broad factors;
1. The International Price of Gold
2. FX rate ie INR USD rate
Yes. Gold prices in India are majorly influenced by INR USD FX rate. Because India does not mine (produce) any GOLD; 99% of our Gold requirement is IMPORTED.
Now tell me if you want to IMPORT something; say you want to import Apple iPhone from US; you first buy Dollars and with the dollars you will buy iphone; same logic applies to Gold too.
Now did you know that International price of Gold has practically not moved for a 28 year period from 1980 to 2008?
Yes. Gold Price was USD 850 an ounce in 1980 and it was the same in 2008.
But in India Gold price moved drastically over this 28 year period. WHY???
Why did Gold price in India move up drastically even though it did not move an inch internationally over a 28 year period from 1980 to 2008?
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: Due to depreciating rupee
Nirav panchmatia: Explain further...
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: The purchasing power of rupee decreased since 1980, which leads to increase in gold prices in India.
Nirav panchmatia: 1 US Dollar is approx 57 today; what was 1 USD in 1980??? Anybody wanna guess??
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: 15?
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: 7-8
Nirav panchmatia: Yes. 1 USD was approx 7 to 8 INR in 1980. And it was INR 55 a year back. Now that explains the rise in GOLD prices in India. The TRUTH is that we Indians, all along have been buying DOLLARS & have been fooling ourselves that we are buying Gold.
The graphic below explains the TRUTH behind GOLD in 1 slide:
Particulars
1980
Mid-2008
Early 2012
Gold Price
(USD/ounce)
$        850.00
$          812.00
$       1,772.40
% Change
-
-6%
118%
Gold Price
(Rs. per tola)
Rs. 1,330.00
Rs. 12,500.00
Rs. 31,200.00
% Change
-
840%
150%
USD / INR
Fx rate
Rs.         7.89
Rs.         43.50
Rs.         53.36
% Change
-
452%
23%


Nirav panchmatia: And YOU thought that you were buying GOLD all along??? How many Media reports highlight this TRUTH about GOLD???
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: On the same line...investment expert says to invest certain amount of portion of portfolio in Gold...and given the link of gold price and fx...our portfolio wud hav exposure to currency risk even though a investor is unwilling to tak ths kind of risk...right?..
Nirav panchmatia: Gold is not an investment in the first place. It is a HEDGE against PESSIMISM. If things go bad, if economies go bad, if markets crash, GOLD shall come to your rescue.
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: Very true
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: Hmm....true...if economies go bad...currency wud depreciate which would increase price of gold further..and easy liquidity of gold act as a saviour..
Nirav panchmatia: When you are optimist about the future you buy EQUITY or STOCKS and Real Estate and when you are pessimist you buy GOLD. Now Time and situation is not constant hence we Financial Planners suggest that 10 to 15% of your portfolio should be in GOLD.
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: GOLD ETF or physical gold? Which one is better if economy is not doing well?
Nirav panchmatia: That is the true reason for GOLD in ur portfolio and not as a stand- alone investment. Our ancestors preferred GOLD because it was easy to store, did not lose value, did not get oxidised , easily transferable and because they did not have better alternative like stocks and Mutual Funds.
Nirav panchmatia: I personally prefer Gold Mutual Funds or Gold ETFs because it cannot be stolen, the mutual fund co. guarantees 99.99 purity gold, and there are no making charges and it is only in GOLD Mutual Fund that you can invest monthly via SIP that too as little as Rs. 500 per month.
Does your local jeweller offer all these facilities???
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: No global or local jewllers would offer such a facility...
Nirav panchmatia: By the way, Jewellery is not an Investment. Do you know why???
Investment, by defn is when you place your money today with the intention of getting back a bigger amt tom; so on the day of investment itself you have decided to sell it;
Can you DARE to ask your wife to give her jewellery back to you so that you can sell it???
Nirav panchmatia: Any takers?????????
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: Sir. Is it advisable to invest in e gold in Nat Spot exchange rather than goldbees ?? considering the heavy amc charges (almost upto 1.5%)of goldbees as compared to e gold
Nirav panchmatia: Maam. Prefer investing in Gold Mutual Funds. It is better than Gold Bees or E Gold because Gold MF is the only avenue where you can invest periodically say monthly or even weekly and an amount of your choice with minimal expense ratio.
Also, since v do not know whether gold will go up or down from here, it is better to invest via SIP mode in it
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: I have concerned about Indian currency.....continuously its depreciating against dollar...is this going to be regular scenario?...
Nirav panchmatia: Nobody knows for sure. Trust me, it is much much more difficult to predict currency movement than Sensex.
And every coin has 2 sides. A weak rs is bad for importer and good for exporter and vice versa...also, FIIs and NRIs will find it more attractive to invest in India if rupee depreciates.
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: But i guess weak currency or depreciating currency is not good sign for econony
Benefits you are talking about are correct...Plus n minus points r thr
Nirav panchmatia: Economists are confused about that too. It is not a very easy conclusion to draw. Many leading economists believe that a weak currency is actually good for the economy. The author of Breakoutnation and Head of Morgan Stanley Mr. Ruchir Sharma believes so.
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: Could you provide link to the article of head of MS...i want to read the points tht he puts forward to support his opinion
Nirav panchmatia: Read his book BREAKOUT NATIONS
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: One more question on Gold. I guess Gold Mutual Funds are funds that are invested in equities of  companies which are involved in mining etc of gold or other precious metal.. while funds like goldbees invest in gold....am I correct?...
Nirav panchmatia: No. Gold mutual funds buy physical gold. Those funds that invest in gold mining companies are of the nature of Fund of Funds and are actually similar to Equity Sectoral Funds as they invest predominantly in Equity of Gold Mining companies. So strictly speaking, they cannot be called gold MFs.
Nirav panchmatia: When you buy gold MF you get exact exposure to gold as if you are actually buying physical gold
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: Okay...that answers my query Nirav. Thanks.
WhatsApp (Investmentz) member: Can you pl name one such gold mutual fund to cite an example
Nirav panchmatia: HDFC Gold Fund, SBI Gold Fund, Reliance Gold Fund; there are 7 to 10 such funds. They do not differ in performance much as they are all supposed to track the exact price of 99% purity Gold in India. What might differ is their Expense ratio. So choose a Gold Mutual Fund that has the lowest expense ratio & min. tracking error.
Also, Crude prices and gold price increase results in rupee depreciation to a large extent as these are India’s 2 biggest imports. This is 100% true. So govt is right in levying import duty on gold. Indians, pls stop buying more gold. V Indians r collectively getting poorer compared to other nations as v keep buying more gold and consuming more fuel.
Dear Readers, hope you liked & benefitted from the above conversation.
As always, shall eagerly await your comments/criticisms/opinions. As that is what keeps me going.
SOUND INVESTING…
 QUOTE of the DAY:
EQUITY (Stocks) is the new gold…

Monday, January 7, 2013

Common Stocks, Uncommon Profits & Investing resolutions for New Year 2013


    If you regularly watch business channels then you would have noticed the change in tone of media and the market experts on TV channels with respect to the advice they give on markets. Since last couple of months, and in case of some experts since last year or so, are coaxing you, the retail Investor, to INVEST in Equities (i.e. Stocks) &/or Equity Mutual Funds.

However, this is my advice to you, the INVESTOR & my BLOG readers…

Please IGNORE what the pundits are saying & I strongly urge you to NOT invest in Equities
(I.e. Stocks & Equity Mutual Funds) in the year 2013…

Although this goes against what I usually speak on CNBC Awaaz financial planning show YOUR MONEY on which I appear regularly (click on the links below to watch my recent show on CNBC Awaaz:

I have a selfish motive involved here when I say that I do not want YOU to invest in Stock Market/Equities:

I do not mind if you stay away from EQUITIES because:
1.  While you keep your money in low interest bearing Savings Account (earning a meager 4, 5 or at best 6% per annum) or while you earn taxable 9% per annum in Fixed Deposits, I shall continue to buy HDFC Bank, Indusind Bank or the likes of Yes Bank which are up 3.5x times, 11.0x times & 5.9x times respectively since DEC 2008.

2.  I also urge you to pay all your EMIs diligently and on time so that retail loans given by banks do not get into trouble and my banking stocks appreciate further from here.

3.  I would also urge you to continue buying GOLD even at these inflated levels (please ignore what the Indian Govt. is saying) so that I continue making supernormal returns in “Titan Industries “and other jewelry companies because while GOLD might be up 2.58x times in last four years, the stock of Titan Industries, which retails gold, is up 6.90x times during the same period.

4.  I would also urge you to buy “Real Estate” and do not forget to take a Home Loan for the same especially from HDFC & LIC Housing Finance. That is how I made 2.8x times & 5.7x times respectively in these stocks over the past 5 years.

5.  Also, while you buy or construct your house, please insist on buying the best quality construction material, may it be Cement, Sanitary Ware or anything else. Because it is because of you that I could make 192% on ACC and 4.5x times on Hindustan Sanitary ware since 2008. Also, please buy decorative paints from Asian Paints only, so that I can make 4.8x times on it over last 4 years.

6.  If you are done with putting money in Bank FDs, Real estate & Gold, and there is still some money left to waste, I would urge you to buy Insurance products so that while you pay hefty double digit commissions to your agent and yourself make low single digit returns on your Money back & Endowment plans, I would have made 6.0x & 2.0x times returns respectively on Insurance company stocks like Bajaj Finserve & Max India.

7.  Also, having invested intelligently in Bank FDs, Real Estate, Gold & Insurance, please feel free to pamper yourself by going to a mall, watch movie in a multiplex and munch some popcorn so that while you have been spending on movies & entertainment, I have made 2.7x times, 3.0x times, 3.0x times & 3.5x times returns respectively on stocks like Phoenix Mills, PVR, Zee telefilms & sun TV since 2008. Hey, do not forget to take your dinner at Dominoes so that I continue making 5.4x time’s return that I have made on Jubilant Foodworks since its IPO in 2010.

8.  Also, your car must be pretty old now. Why don’t you upgrade to the latest model and let me do the boring job of owning stocks like Maruti & Bajaj Auto that are up 2.9x times & 10.8 times respectively since 2008. Or keep buying the macho motorcycle Enfield so that I keep making 12.0x times returns that I have made on Eicher Motors since 2008 and continue making some more money.

9.  Also, please continue smoking & drinking so that I continue making 3.80x times return on ITC, 10.3x times on United Breweries & 2.2x times on United Spirits in four years.

10.       Last but not the least, god forbid, if you over indulge yourself & have to visit a hospital, or buy medicines, I shall continue to make 3.8x times on Apollo Hospitals, 4.0x times on Dr. Reddys & 2.3x times on Cipla.

SO now I have given you 10 strong reasons to NOT INVEST in EQUITIES but continue being the CUSTOMER of the companies whose stocks I own…that way, you are happy enjoying their services or products & I am happy making triple digit returns by owning the stocks of the very same companies…

Top Stock Performers since Dec 2008
Stock
Returns over the past 4 Yrs.
(%)
Value of Rs. 1 Lac invested in
Dec 2008  (Rs.)
How many
 times (x.0)
Sensex
19.28%
 1,19,280
 1.19
Eicher Motors
1034.00%
 11,34,000
 11.34
Bajaj Auto
968.00%
 10,68,000
 10.68
Bajaj Finserv
543.00%
 6,43,000
 6.43
Titan Industries
539.00%
 6,39,000
 6.39
LIC Housing Finance
491.00%
 5,91,000
 5.91
HSIL
351.00%
 4,51,000
 4.51
Dr. Reddys
289.00%
 3,89,000
 3.89
Apollo Hospitals
260.00%
 3,60,000
 3.60
HDFC Bank
247.00%
 3,47,000
 3.47
PVR
198.00%
 2,98,000
 2.98
ACC
192.00%
 2,92,000
 2.92
Maruti Suzuki
183.00%
 2,83,000
 2.83
Cipla
118.00%
 2,18,000
 2.18
Max India
108.00%
 2,08,000
 2.08

If you have a hard look at the table above, you will notice that while Sensex has given a meager 19.50% returns over 4 years between Dec 2008 and Dec 2012, Stocks like Eicher Motors have gone up 10.0x times or Titan Industries have gone up by 6.40x times and so on over the same period.

Now I leave it up to you to decide whether you want to be a consumer only of the above mentioned companies are do you want to join in their wealth creation party by partly owning some of the above phenomenal stocks…

Now a few caveat here….

Please don’t think that I am recommending you to buy the above-mentioned Stocks….
Because since these stocks have gone up so much over the past 4 years, some of these are no more cheaply valued & hence are not a very attractive investment options today.

By writing this article I am trying to bring home the point that there is no better investment option available in India today than investing in Stocks or Equities especially because this is a rare asset class that is not overvalued today as returns over past four years of Sensex companies are nothing to write home about.

Gold, Real Estate is already overvalued. Not that they may not give returns going ahead but that party is already in midnight whereas the Equity party has just started. It is still not late to enter that party. and it absolutely makes no sense to me why somebody would park his money in Bank Fixed Deposits earning a meagre 9 to 9.50% and then paying 30% tax on the same. (Please read my article "The Rich Man's bank accounts" to get a perspective on the same (http://niravpanchmatia.blogspot.in/2011/03/rich-mans-bank-accounts.html)).

Also, this is the first time that I have borrowed an article. Till date whatever I have written on this BLOG was all Original content. This article appeared in Outlook Business recently and was penned by Samir Arora. I found it so enlightening & full of wisdom that I thought it fit to share it with you all.

EQUITY shall be the asset class of 2013, 2014 and so on…

Those who will be out of Equity (read Stocks and Equity Mutual Funds) in 2013 will miss the party…

The CHOICE is yours…

By the way, the title of this blog, Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits is also the name of a very famous book authored by Philip Fisher, one of the most successful stock market investor who was admired by my Guru Warren Buffett himself. If you can get hold of that book, it is worth a read…

HAPPY  INVESTING in 2013...