Whom is this Blog meant for?

This BLOG is meant for those INVESTORS who want to benefit from the India story & are on the look out for expert, unbiased & easy to understand Investment advice about MUTUAL FUNDS & other investment avenues.
Showing posts with label Risk-free Investments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Risk-free Investments. Show all posts

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Subbu liquid fund ke bare main nahin jaanta hai


You must have seen or read about this wonderful advertisement appearing since december on TV as well as print media...

“SUBBU SAB JAANTA HAIN”....

It is an advertisement by Kotak Mahindra Bank intending to attract money in it's savings bank account on which it recently increased the interest rates from 4% per annum to 6% per annum. And their pitch is that do not see it a mere 2% increase but look at it as 50% increase over & above what you were getting on your savings bank account earlier...(a 50% increase from earlier 4% per annum to now 6% per annum)

I want you to see this advertisement first before we proceed with this article...


I don’t know about you but I kind of like this guy SUBBU….

What a wonderful way to explain the concept….

Only caveat is that SUBBU needs to take some financial literacy lessons from Financial Planners like me so that he becomes wiser… let me explain…

Now advertising on TV and other print media is not cheap....

A one minute clip on TV and half page advertisement in leading biz dailies like The Economic Times and Business Standard by Kotak Bank to advertise the simplest of all products, the Savings Bank Account seems a bit tricky…

Somewhere, the top management at that bank believes that 6%pa is an attractive rate of return good enough to lure the depositors to park their idle cash with them rather then your existing bank, which in all probabilities is still giving you a mere 4% per annum on your Savings Bank account ....

Now, if Kotak and some other banks believe that offering a 5 or a 6 % on it's savings bank a/c is good enough to attract depositors money, so much so that it worth spending lacs on TV & Print media…then there might be some truth behind it…and why not, if I am getting 2% extra, I will go there…after all, as SUBBU says, look at it as 50% more…

Now, let us visit the BASICS first…

What is a “Savings bank a/c” and why do we keep money there...

Well, you and I keep that portion of our money in the saving bank a/c that we have as a surplus, that we have not spent but which we think we might need in a foreseeable future...but we are not sure when we might need that money…

So we keep our idle money in a savings bank account pending further use... Why do we not invest this money...

Because we might need it any time...therefore it's better to keep it idle in a savings bank account then to invest it somewhere where it might become difficult to withdraw it when the need arises...

So , as far as our savings bank money is considered, we give preference to LIQUIDITY over RETURNS...

And by the grace of God, the returns on Savings bank account have also become attractive now... Alas, one good news that 2011 had to throw us...

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a deregulation of the savings bank deposit interest rate in its second quarter monetary policy review some time back. This means banks are now free to determine the interest rates on their savings accounts. Before the deregulation, banks were supposed to give a flat 4% per annum on savings accounts.

I expect savings accounts interest rates to go up in short term due to competition among banks to acquire these low-cost deposits. The interest rates are expected to be higher for deposits of more than Rs 1 lakh. But this will hold true as long as the interest rates in the economy are high…Once RBI starts reducing the interest rates, this golden period might also come to an end…

So since last few months of 2011, you would have come across advertisement by some banks highlighting the increased savings bank account interest that they would have begun offering to their customers compared to  the 4% per annum that other banks are offering...

After the recent deregulation of savings bank account interest rates by RBI, at least three banks have hiked their interest rates till date.

Yes Bank was the first one to raise the interest rates on savings account with all balances to 6%, and this was followed by Indusind and Kotak bank announcing interest rates hikes on their savings accounts too. Others might follow too…
To start with, these are the three/four banks that have announced a hike in their interest rates.
S.No.
Name
Under Rs. 1 lakh
Over Rs. 1 lakh
1
6.0%
6.0%
2
5.5%
6.0%
3
Kotak Mahindra Bank
5.5%
6.0%
4
5.0%
5.0%
Source: Internet; data as on Oct 31st, 2011

Now why are these banks offering more to it's savings bank customers and also spending lacs of rupees advertising the same... Is it not a loose- lose situation for them...

First increasing their cost of fund by offering 50% more and then heavy spending on advertisement,

And the answer is No... Because money that we keep in our savings bank account is the cheapest source of funds for any bank... Even at 6% it is by far one of the cheapest ...

So they are not doing a favour to you and me by offering 2 % more but they are actually getting a very cheap source of money from us...But there is nothing wrong on their part either....this is how a bank is run..

And SUBBU s right when he says that do not look at it as 2% extra but look at it as 50% more...(6% is 50% more than 4% that was earlier being offered by all banks to its savings bank customers)

But there is one thing that SUBBU is either not aware of or that he is hiding from us...

(in fact, since I have developed a liking for Subbu, I would like to believe that SUBBU is plain ignorant but he is honest)

Ever thought where do banks park their surplus funds... banks, as per banking regulations are not allowed to lend all their money to us… So if banks are not allowed to lend all their money and as a rule if banks are supposed to have LIQUIDITY at all times, where do banks PARK (as against INVEST) their surplus or idle funds....

·         Because like you and me, LIQUIDITY is of primary importance for a bank too...

·         And a Bank does not have access to a savings bank type product like you and me...

·         So a  bank would like to PARK it's money in a product where it can withdraw money at will at very short notice and yet earn more than the 5 or 6 odd percentage that it is offering to it's savings bank customers...

Among the 2 to 3 options available to a bank to park it's short term money,Liquid funds offered by Mutual Funds is one…

Now, just think for 2 minutes....

A bank needs to fulfil 3 criteria before it can park it's short term money:

1.      The investment avenue should b safe, very safe, as a bank cannot afford to take risks with its short term money
2.      The liquidity should be good ie; a bank can withdraw money at a day or 2 days notice
3.      The bank should earn returns good enough to compensate for the interest rate it is offering its customers on its savings bank or Equivalent products...how will it make money otherwise…

So, if banks are using Liquid funds to park their money, rest assured it fulfils all of the above mentioned criteria of SAFETY, LIQUIDITY and attractive RETURNs as far as short term funds are concerned...

Now, can YOU & I invest in LIQUID funds, banks favourite products for parking it's short term money....

The answer is YES....

Do we get the similar returns as to what a bank earns from liquid funds?
The answer is YES...

Then why are we, the lay people,  not using LIQUID FUNDs as a safe, sound instrument to PARK (and not INVEST) our short term funds and leaving it idle in a savings bank account for months together earning a meagre 6% per annum, 5% per annum or in most cases 4% per annum? (and mind you this was 3.50% pa earlier)…

The only answer that comes to my mind is sheer IGNORANCE...

Either you have not heard about this wonderful savings product or you have heard about it but not considered the proposition seriously...

I do not blame you for the same… Since time immemorial we have been using a SAVINGS BANK A/C as the only and only place to keep our idle, temporary , short term money… so what if it was earning 3.5% per annum earlier and is now earning 4 to 6% per annum…

At least our money is safe and you might need the money any time…

After all, we are not supposed to invest all our surpluses…we need to have spare cash with us for emergencies or unforeseen events…

But if banks (where we so comfortably park our excess cash) think LIQUID Funds are safe and liquid and remunerative enough then it would be sheer ignorance on our part not to consider this wonderful instrument that offers avenues for parking our short-term, temporary funds…

Just imagine, an instrument where you can park your money for short term (for a time period as short as a couple of days), that offers liquidity so that we can withdraw money at will (at 2 working days notice ) and yet it earns an annualized return in the range of 7 to 8% per annum...practically risk-free…(remember, banks will not park their money where they are not safe)

Yes, well chosen liquid plus funds are currently offering anywhere between 7 .50% to 8.00% per annum, risk-free &

 YES again, you can withdraw this money on 2 working days notice…&

YES again, your money is as safe as it was in a bank account provided you choose your fund carefully or take professional advice…&

YES again, you can withdraw your money, that you had parked in Liquid Funds,
 either at one go or in multiple instalments, as you please…

What a wonderful proposition indeed…

Why keep even small amount of money idle in a savings bank account earning a 4%, 5% or in a few rare cases 6 % per annum return when today, we are getting upward of 8% per annum annualised returns on LIQUID FUNDS offered by Mutual Funds...virtually risk-free

Now SUBBU will agree and if he is honest enough, which I believe he is, he will admit that if a “Liquid fund” is offering 7.50% per annum to 8 % per annum currently, and at the same time not compromising either on the SAFETY of your funds or on LIQUIDITY, it is a very very attractive avenue for parking our idle funds that we might need anytime…

After all, a good LIQUID Fund is offering a COOL 25% more than the best savings bank rate being offered by any major bank in India (7.50% of liquid fund is 25% more than 6%, the highest  interest rate being offered by any bank on savings a/c) and a cooler 100% more than what most banks are currently offering (8.00% of liquid fund is 100% more than 4%, the  interest rate being offered by most banks on savings a/c)

Now have a look at the graphic below...
 Last 1 year actual returns from some Liquid+ Funds

No.
1 year return
(% pa)*
Expense Ratio (%)
Returns post
expenses
 (% pa)
1
9.62%
0.37%
9.25%
2
9.40%
0.25%
9.15%
3
9.34%
0.35%
8.99%
4
9.14%
0.35%
8.79%
5
9.29%
0.63%
8.66%

Now, the above table shows post expenses actual returns realised from some of the Liquid Plus Funds over the past year….

As you can see, the actual returns earned by some liquid plus fund over the past year are well above 8.50% per annum…but the reason I am saying that one can expect 7.50% to 8.0% pa going forward is because RBI is expected to decrease the interest rates going forward…but even in that scenario, it is a very attractive proposition…

And mind you, it's the likes of kotak, Indusind & Yes bank that are offering 5 to 6% per annum on savings account and that too now when the interest rates are at their peak...these banks are bound to decrease the interest rates on savings bank a couple of months later when RBI starts decreasing them…

Also, Most of the banks have not yet increased the interest that they are offering on Savings bank account...they continue to offer4% per annum on Savings bank accounts…

So SUBBU, an 8% per annum on Liquid Funds, where your very bank is parking our money, is a COOL 100% more than 4% being offered by most banks & a cool 33.33% more than what your bank is offering us on our money…

Why don’t you consider shifting your money from your bank a/c to Liquid Funds…

I shall await your reply SUBBU…and shall also look forward to your next pitch…

What did you say, you do not have access to a Financial Planners services…

Oh dear, do not worry, I am always there for you SUBBU… call me any time in case of any query that you might have regarding Savings & Investments or for that matter any financial product…

No, do not worry; my Advisory Fees are very nominal, they will be very light on your pocket…

No SUBBU, I will not tell anyone that you take advice from me before giving it to others…

…after all, I am your fan too…

Have a nice day SUBBU….

                     

Thought for the day

Don’t SAVE what is left after spending,
SPEND what is left after saving…

Saturday, December 17, 2011

JAAGO NRI JAAGO


The BEST Investment opportunity is provided only in times of CRISIS”.

Indian importers are aghast, shocked and caught unawares at the sudden fall in rupee vis-a-vis the US dollar…an Indian traveller, the Indian Govt. and the Indian Importer are in pain as they have to pay full 15 to16% more rupees today to buy 1 US dollar compared to a year back…

Have a look at the table below…

Time Period
1 year ago
6 months ago
3 months ago
Current
exchange rate
Date
17-JAN-11
16-JUNE-11
16-SEP-11
16-DEC-11
1 USD = INR
45.48
44.84
47.40
52.63
Rupee depreciation
16%
17%
11%
-

While it takes us Indians approx. Rs. 52.63 today (16-DEC-11) to buy one US dollar, we could buy 1 USD by paying a mere Rs. 45.48 a year back. The rupee has depreciated against the US Dollar by a good 16% compared to a year ago (or should I say that the USD has appreciated by a cool 16%). What’s more, the sharp fall in the rupee against the dollar has been sudden, with 11% fall coming in last 3 months itself…

This has caused a huge blow to the Indian Govt. because OIL is India’s biggest import & oil price, although has remain range-bound in terms of dollar, but because it takes our Govt. more rupees to buy 1 US dollar today compared to a year back, the cost of oil imports has suddenly shot up catching the Govt. unawares… in fact, this has been sighted as the main reason by our govt. to increase the price of petrol this week…

The Indian traveller who was planning to pack his bags and travel to US or the Europe will think twice now as his cost of travel has suddenly shot up by a good 15%...

Similar is the plight of an Indian parent whose child/ward is studying abroad. This December they are forced to pay 15% to 16% more fees compared to last year because of a similar fall in rupee v/s the USD.
However, the most pain is being borne by the poor Indian importer who would not have imagined in his worst nightmare that he will have to pay upwards of Rs. 50 to buy 1 USD. If you are a traveller, you can cancel/postpone your travel, if you are a parent remitting education fees to your child studying abroad, you can pay the higher rate for the dollar now hoping that by next semester, USD would be much cheaper, but the pain is continuous and unavoidable for the Indian Govt. and the Indian importer is in a more precarious situation as he cannot stop importing good otherwise his business will stop growing.

However, to repeat my quote above…a CRISIS for one is an OPPORTUNITY for another…

No awards for guessing who is the biggest beneficiary of the 15 % rupee depreciation? The Indian EXPORTER…especially those who are exporting goods and/or SERVICES to the United States…

The Indian EXPORTER has had his diwali this year, not in the month of October but from October till now with rupee depreciating by 8% to 10% since diwali and their top line & bottom-line increasing in direct correlation to the depreciation of the rupee vis-à-vis the US dollar…

Our Indian Exporter is having a field day and the diwali is continuing till the date of writing this article…

But, besides the exporters, there are two more group of people who stands to benefit directly & immediately from the 15% depreciation in rupee….
And what more, if they play their cards well, they can benefit immensely from this unwanted but unavoidable fall in Indian rupee…

Can you guess whom I am talking about…?

Think hard….what is missing from the graphic below???

Those who “LOOSE” from the rupee depreciation
Those who “BENEFIT” from the rupee depreciation
Indian Govt.
???
Importer
Exporter
Indian tourist & biz travellers travelling abroad
Foreign traveller planning to travel to India
Parents whose children are studying abroad
???

Can you fill in the blanks above…. besides the Exporters, which 2 communities stand to benefit the most from the falling rupee??

Well, let me break the suspense here….

The 1st is the Foreign Investor including the FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) who have hordes of unutilised CASH lying idle in their coffers in the form of US dollars…that’s one of the reason I am not very concerned about the sudden fall in the Sensex…The FIIs, if they decide to invest in Indian equities today, stand to make a cool, risk-free 10 to 15% profit just by remitting money to India and converting USD to Indian Rupee…. So what my teachers taught me in school has some truth in it…
“EVERY CLOUD HAS A SILVER LINING”…

So, if we re-visit the above graphic… you’ve got one of the answers….

Those who “LOOSE” from the rupee depreciation
Those who “BENEFIT” from the rupee depreciation
Indian Govt.
Foreign Investors or the FII’s
Importer
Exporter
Indian tourist & biz travellers travelling abroad
Foreign traveller planning to travel to India
Parents whose children are studying abroad
???

Now I hope the FIIs read my  BLOG, understand the logic of 15%+ risk-free return that I am writing about and start investing in Indian markets again….
But alas, that’s wishful thinking… My BLOG readers are not FII’s and FII’s are yet to become my BLOG subscribers, at least not in the near future…

So, for who am I writing this article… who is going to benefit by reading this blog article? Well YOU, my BLOG reader, if you know any NRI friend and/or relative and/or business partner. And to speak more directly, my friends who are residing/studying/working abroad… the NRI’s (Non-Resident Indian’s) and the PIOs (Person of Indian Origin’s).


So, now we complete the graphic above… finally…

Those who “LOOSE” from the rupee depreciation
Those who “BENEFIT” from the rupee depreciation
Indian Govt.
Foreign Investors or the FII’s
Importer
Exporter
Indian tourist & biz travellers travelling abroad
Foreign traveller planning to travel to India
Parents whose children are studying abroad
NRI’s and PIO’s

Yes, pick up the phone and give a call to your NRI / PIO friend/relative/biz partner sitting abroad, with dollars stashed away in his bank, probably worrying about his job, next salary, raise or about his business prospect, envying you and us Indians that we are living in the 2nd fastest growing economy when he/she/they are living in economies struggling to stay out of recession and earning a meagre 2 to 3% on his bank deposits when we Indians are earning 9%+ on our deposits.

Call your NRI friend /relative / biz partner not to tell the above but to tell him that NOW, since last couple of months; YOU & I have started to ENVY our NRI friend working abroad…

WHY????  Here is the reason…

If I am an NRI residing in US or Europe or for that matter anywhere else, having spare dollars (or for that matter any other foreign currency) with me that I do not need at least for a few months if not more, I shall immediately REMIT my foreign currency savings to my NRE account and end up buying rupee @  Rs. 52.63 for every US dollar. Had I remitted money last year or even 3 months back, I would have received either Rs. 45.48 per US dollar (1 year back) or Rs. 47.40 (3 months back) per USD…

So, by remitting money NOW, I gain a cool 11.0% more compared to say 3 months back & 15.7% compared to a year back…

Now, an NRI has two choices after he has remitted money back to India.

Option 1:  Start a NRE Deposit account and earn 2.5% to 3.5% return on his NRE deposits which actually is not bad as now his total earnings from this activity is a cool 18.5% (15% earned on conversion to rupee+3.5% on NRE deposits)…

Not bad compared to 3 to 4% max.  that he/she might be earning on their local bank deposits…

 (PN: interest rates earned on local deposits might vary from country to country)

However, if your NRI friend is of the more intelligent kind who takes pains to do some more research and /or takes professional advice from Wealth Mangers/Financial Planners, here in India, he will go for option 2…

Option 2:

So what is option 2?

Well, step 1 remains the same. Transfer money to India by remitting your foreign currency to your NRE bank account and convert your USD or any other foreign currency to Indian rupee and pocket a cool 15% odd risk-free…

Step 2, rather than depositing it into a NRE Deposit a/c, you INVEST the rupees so earned into Debt-based Mutual Funds here in India….
Ok, did you know that already???? So what’s stopping you my friend??? Are you not happy with practically risk-free 20.0% + returns in one year?

There are two unique events playing simultaneously in Indian economy that presents a unique, never before, opportunity to our NRI friends to obtain / EARN a practically RISK-FREE return of 20% odd….

Not only the rupee depreciation is at its peak, even the interest rates in India are at their peak. We all know that… you and I are earning upwards in the range of 9.0% to 10% per annum on our Fixed Deposits with banks (although I believe it is foolish for an Indian do open a FD today… surprised, read my article “ The Rich Man’s bank Accounts:….( http://niravpanchmatia.blogspot.com/2011/03/rich-mans-bank-accounts.html )

I say that because while FDs are giving us 9 to 10% pa they are taxed @ 30% however some of the medium-term debt-based Mutual Funds in India are offering returns in the range of 10.00% to 11.25% per annum…and are taxed @ 10% even if I may be in the 30% tax bracket..
So step 2 for an NRI would be to INVEST his money from the NRE account to some of these, well chosen, debt-based Mutual Funds in India.
He therefore stands to gain a cool 25% to 26.50% returns on his surplus dollars that otherwise were lying idle in his foreign bank account or earning a meagre 3 to 4% pa.

Now, a final graphic for you… the table below shows 1 year return in case of 3 strategies that an NRI can adopt with respect to his surplus funds…


NRI money lying idle in his local bank a/c
NRI remits money NOW to his NRE A/c & transfers it to NRE deposits
NRI remits money to NRE A/c and Invests in debt mutual funds in India
Profit on conversion of USD to rupee
0%
15.0% approx.
15.0% approx.
1 year return
3.0% to 4.0% pa
3.0% to 4.0% pa
10.0% to 11.25 % pa
Total returns earned after 1 year
3.0%    to
4.0% after 1 year
18.0%   to
19.0%  after 1 year
25.0%   to
26.25%  after 1 year

Now, the returns from debt-based mutual funds are expected returns but past 10 years record shows that good, well chosen debt mutual funds have given returns as indicated within a range of +/- 0.75%. Only one caveat here, please take professional help before finalising the debt mutual fund for Investment.

So, how is that for a neat 25% return over one year with very little risk …

Isn’t it cool…. If you think so and agree with me, then I would request you to forward this article to every NRI/PIO friend of yours… he will definitely thank you from the bottom of his heart and probably gift you that ipad or the latest iPhone4…

Now, about DON2,

 if Shah-Rukh Khan can dare to bring out DON2, can  I not write JAAGO NRI JAAGO part II…

Await the sequel, as in my following article I am talking about NRI’s making a cool, hold your breath, hold it, hold it, 50%+ returns….

Wait, before you point a finger at me and raise doubts, this one is not without risks….it is meant for NRI investors who fulfil the below mentioned conditions:
1.   
  1. 1. They have the stomach to take risks
  2. 2.   They are willing to INVEST for a longer time period of 3 to 5 years
  3. 3.   They take professional advice here in India before creating their Investment portfolio

Yes, a cool, 50% return in 3 to 4 years is not bad, is it????
Wait for DON 2, I mean JAAGO NRI JAAGO part II…

WATCH THIS SPACE…


QUOTE OF THE DAY:
If you buy things that you don,t need,
Soon you will have to SELL things that you need…